The Declining Young Adult Population in New England
Ross Gittell,
Carsey Institute, Winter 2007
New England’s economic future will shape and be
shaped by demographic trends in the region, and there
are some disturbing patterns emerging showing a decline
in the young adult population. Businesses need a
dynamic labor force that includes a pool of young adult
workers. Young adults also make the region a vibrant
and interesting place to live, contributing to cultural,
intellectual and social life. And young families support
local schools and demand a strong educational system.
New England lags significantly behind other U.S.
regions in population growth, and is losing its youth.
Data recently available from the US Census American
Community Survey suggest a troubled demographic profi le
emerging throughout the New England states. The region’s
population has grown less than the national average over the
last 15 years, increasing 8 percent compared to an 18 percent
increase nationally from 1990 to 2004. In all age cohorts New England’s growth lags the national average, but the most alarming change is in the 25–34 year old group. The population in this “young adult” age cohort in New England
declined nearly 25 percent (24.2 percent) from 1990 to 2004.
Th is compares to the national average decline of 7 percent.
All the New England states are among the bottom 10 of
the 50 states in population change in this important cohort
and all the states in the region have lost one-fift h or more of
their young adult populations. The decline in young adults
in the New England states contrasts sharply with the greater
than 10 percent growth in this cohort in seven of the Western
Mountain, Northwest and Southeast States—Nevada,
Utah, Arizona, Idaho, Colorado, Georgia and Oregon.
This loss of young adults has occurred throughout the
region. Of the 67 counties in New England, every one except
for tiny Nantucket county in Massachusetts experienced
some decline in the young adult cohort.
What are the causes—and consequences—of the demographic changes?
Some of the causes of the population changes in New
England are attributable to predictable demographic shift s,
while other factors are less well understood. Clearly the
decline in the young adult population in New England can
be attributed in part to the aging of the large baby boom
population, those born between 1946 and 1964. In 1990,
more than half of New England baby boomers were in the
25–to–34 year old age cohort. In 2004, these baby boomers
were no longer young adults. This explains part of the
decline in the region, and we know that the aging of the baby
boom generation is a primary cause of the overall decline in
the percentage of young adults in the nation as a whole.
What is less well understood is why the distribution of the
young adult age cohort is so unequal across diff erent regions.
Why do some of the Mountain, Northwest and Southeastern
states have positive growth rates of 20 to 60 percent in the
young adult age group while New England has double-digit
decline? The dramatic diff erences suggest that New England
is not “attractive” to young adults, but what factors contribute
to young adults’ preference for one region over another?
What is the relative importance, for instance, of factors such
as costs of living? What role do housing or energy costs play
in the choices made by different age cohorts? Are certain
types of jobs or environments more desirable by people
of different ages? How do current “myths” about some
regions being more youth-oriented and youth-friendly than
others influence the changes we have seen in recent years?
We do not yet have answers to questions like these and
more research and analysis is needed.
Whatever the causal factors turn out to be, however, the
consequences of the demographic changes are substantial
and suggest leaders in the region need to pay attention to
these trends. The decline of the young adult population in
New England has significant implications for the future
labor force, economy and character of the region. Younger
workers provide the economic foundation for the future
strength and resilience of the region’s businesses. They provide
a critical pool of hard working, entry level workers for
businesses in all industries, and often bring fresh ideas, new
skills, and energy to the workplace. They make the region
more interesting, more dynamic and can be a magnet that
attracts others to come and visit and live in the region, both
young and old. The region will struggle to achieve significant
employment growth and new industry and business development
without an adequate pool of young workers, and the
imbalanced growth in the older population leaves the region
vulnerable to a host of health and elder care costs without
the productive base to support them.
The author thanks Tim Lord for his research assistance.
Dr. Ross Gittell is James R. Carter Professor at the
University of New Hampshire’s Whittemore School of
Business and Economics and a senior fellow at the Carsey
Institute.